ABCI Iraq 2035

Private Sector, SMEs & Entrepreneurship

Turning small businesses and entrepreneurial activity into formal, productive and scalable companies.

Research version 1.1Updated: 30 September 2026

ABCI analytical perspective. Milestones and structural directions below are research propositions, not official forecasts or commitments.

Why It Matters

Entrepreneurship contributes to transformation when firms can survive, formalize, employ people and expand. The research focus is the transition from an individual activity to a company with repeatable operations, governance and access to markets.

Where Iraq Stands

The World Bank Iraq overview reports unemployment of 13.5% and labour force participation of 38%. These are economy-wide labour indicators, not measurements of SME performance. A reliable startup-to-scale-up baseline is still needed to assess business progression directly.

The Structural Gap

Counting registrations or training participants does not explain whether businesses become productive employers. Comparable evidence is needed on survival, formal jobs, revenue growth and market access, with clear definitions of firm size and business stage.

What Needs to Change

Research priorities include proportionate formalization, better financial records, management capabilities, commercial connections and finance suited to the stage of the business. Support should connect preparation with customers and operational execution.

2030 Milestone

By 2030, look for observable transitions from startup to sustainable company, supported by cohort-based survival and employment data. Measure how firms use support and reach customers rather than treating participation counts as proof of growth.

Proposed measurement protocol

Measure and definition
Business survival at 12 and 36 months, real revenue growth and net jobs for a defined SME cohort.
Collection and comparison
Define size, registration status, sector and entry date before collecting linked business records and repeat surveys. Publish cohort coverage and attrition.
Current limits
A national SME cohort and baseline are not established in this edition. General unemployment and participation are context, not substitutes for SME outcomes.

2035 Direction

Stronger survival, growth and formal employment in viable SMEs, alongside lower unemployment. This qualitative direction requires business-level evidence; it is not a numerical labour-market forecast.

Key Indicators

Institutional baseline

Unemployment

13.5%

Measurement period not identified in the linked source

World Bank Iraq overview; not a live estimate.

Definition, dates & source context
Measurement period
Not identified in the linked source
Publication date
Not identified in the linked source
Independent check
2026-09-30
Source edition
Linked publication / page; edition number not stated
Source: World Bank — Iraq overview ↗
Institutional baseline

Labour force participation

38%

Measurement period not identified in the linked source

Reported in the World Bank Iraq overview. The linked paragraph does not specify the observation period.

Definition, dates & source context
Measurement period
Not identified in the linked source
Publication date
Not identified in the linked source
Independent check
2026-09-30
Source edition
Linked publication / page; edition number not stated
Source: World Bank — Iraq overview ↗
ABCI qualitative research direction

Unemployment

Lower unemployment and better-quality work

2035

ABCI Research Direction — not an official government target.

Qualitative research proposition. No quantified 2035 scenario is published until a consistent baseline, assumptions and reproducible calculation have been reviewed. See the pillar measurement plan for definitions, collection needs and limitations.

Definition, dates & source context
Measurement period
Not identified in the linked source
Publication date
Not identified in the linked source
Independent check
Not reverified in this revision
Source edition
ABCI research framework 1.1

SOURCE REGISTER

Sources

The register identifies each linked publication or data series. Indicator cards retain measurement periods and definitions. An absent publication or check date is shown explicitly; the edition date is not a substitute.

  1. World Bank — Iraq overview

    Linked publication / page; edition number not stated

    Published: date not established

    Independent check: 2026-09-30

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ABCI · BAGHDAD, IRAQ

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