Research methodology

Purpose of ABCI Iraq 2035

The framework connects evidence with questions about economic transformation and the role of the private sector. It supports structured analysis and discussion.

Source hierarchy

Priority is given to Iraqi statistical and institutional publications, followed by relevant international institutions and their country-specific reporting. Official statements are used for stated targets and commitments. Each figure retains its source, reference period, unit and qualifications; conflicting definitions should not be combined.

Official Baseline

A published observation or estimate from an official or reputable institutional source. Estimates remain labelled as estimates. Calculated values are separately classified as derived from an official source and disclose their calculation: the approximate non-oil GDP share is 100% minus the World Bank’s 53% oil-share estimate for 2025.

Historical Baseline

An observation retained for context that must not be represented as a current measurement. R&D expenditure of 0.04% of GDP refers to 2021. The observation year takes precedence over the date on which the website is updated.

Official Targets

A numerical objective stated by an official institution. Strategy implementation periods are a separate information type. Targets are not achieved results. Solar capacity of 12,000 MW by 2030 is shown as an official target; the financial-inclusion strategy period does not imply an additional unsupported numeric goal.

Official Commitments / Directions

A formally stated commitment or policy ambition, with its conditions preserved. The NDC commitment is 22% below business as usual by 2035, comprising 5% unconditional and 17% conditional reductions. A gas self-sufficiency ambition is not a guaranteed outcome.

ABCI Research Directions

Qualitative directions used to examine potential structural change. No quantified scenario model has been published in this edition. They are not official government targets or probability-based forecasts. Their interpretation depends on the evidence, interventions and assumptions described within each pillar.

2030 Milestones

An intermediate test of execution: what observable evidence would indicate that change is under way? Pillar milestones identify areas to measure; they are analytical propositions, not annual government commitments or promises of delivery.

2035 Direction

The longer-term structural direction being examined, rather than a fixed prediction. This edition uses qualitative research propositions. Numerical ranges are withheld until compatible baselines, assumptions and reproducible calculations have been reviewed.

Data Gaps & comparability

Where a sufficiently reliable baseline is not available, the subject is placed in Data Gaps instead of receiving an estimated value. Measurement, publication, verification and source-edition fields are separate. An unresolved period is explicitly identified rather than filled with the research-edition date. Coverage, units and reporting periods must be checked before comparing figures.

Update policy

This is a dated research edition, not a live data feed. Revisions should follow review of source evidence, definitions and any changes to assumptions. New releases should update the visible version and date, while retaining qualifications and a record of source changes.

Revision record and corrections

• 1.1 · 2026-09-30 — Separated the 2024 census from its 2025 publication; distinguished derived values and strategy periods; added date fields and source-check status; replaced unmodelled numerical directions with qualitative propositions; added measurement protocols and a separate data dashboard.
• 1.0 · 2026-09 — Initial published framework of twelve pillars and sourced context.

This edition records implemented corrections rather than promising automatic updates. New evidence must be checked for definitions, periods and source changes before another dated release. Responsibility for any future publication schedule is to be confirmed by ABCI.