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ABCI Iraq 2035

Economic Diversification

Building a broader economic base beyond dependence on oil revenues, exports and public expenditure.

Research version 1.1Updated: 30 September 2026

ABCI analytical perspective. Milestones and structural directions below are research propositions, not official forecasts or commitments.

Why It Matters

Oil can finance development, but an economy concentrated in one revenue source remains exposed to price cycles. Diversification means building productive businesses and a wider tax and export base, rather than simply increasing activity funded by public expenditure.

Where Iraq Stands

The World Bank’s 2025 estimates put oil at 53% of real GDP, 88% of government revenue and 91% of merchandise exports. The implied non-oil share of real GDP is about 47%. Manufacturing accounted for 2.8% of GDP in 2024; these measures describe different aspects of concentration and should not be treated as interchangeable.

The Structural Gap

A larger non-oil economy does not automatically mean a more productive private sector. Analysis must distinguish trade and services dependent on government spending from businesses that compete through production, productivity and exports. Announced investment volumes also need to be distinguished from operating capacity.

What Needs to Change

Priorities for assessment include reliable energy, competitive logistics, access to appropriate finance, predictable rules and business capabilities. Sector strategies should connect investment with suppliers, workforce skills and demand. Fiscal diversification should be assessed alongside the productivity and formalization of businesses.

2030 Milestone

By 2030, the research test is measurable progress in non-oil production, private investment that reaches operation, export diversity and productivity. Establish comparable baselines and track outcomes rather than project announcements alone. This is an ABCI assessment milestone, not a government commitment.

Proposed measurement protocol

Measure and definition
Non-oil share of real GDP, measured on the same price and sector basis as the oil share; manufacturing value added on its stated GDP basis.
Collection and comparison
Use annual national accounts with series revisions recorded. Compare a consistent time series and report real/nominal differences before combining indicators.
Current limits
No numerical 2035 scenario is retained without an approved calculation and assumptions. National GDP composition does not measure individual company productivity.

2035 Direction

A broader contribution of productive non-oil activity to real GDP, exports and employment, with stronger private-sector productivity. This is a qualitative direction; no quantified 2035 scenario is published in this edition.

Key Indicators

Institutional baseline

Oil share of real GDP

53%

2025

Estimate.

Definition, dates & source context
Measurement period
2025
Publication date
Not identified in the linked source
Independent check
2026-09-30
Source edition
Linked publication / page; edition number not stated
Source: World Bank — Iraq overview ↗
Institutional baseline

Oil share of government revenues

88%

2025

Estimate.

Definition, dates & source context
Measurement period
2025
Publication date
Not identified in the linked source
Independent check
2026-09-30
Source edition
Linked publication / page; edition number not stated
Source: World Bank — Iraq overview ↗
Institutional baseline

Oil share of merchandise exports

91%

2025

Estimate; World Bank Iraq context.

Definition, dates & source context
Measurement period
2025
Publication date
Not identified in the linked source
Independent check
2026-09-30
Source edition
Linked publication / page; edition number not stated
Source: World Bank — Iraq overview ↗
ABCI qualitative research direction

Non-oil share of GDP

Broader non-oil contribution

2035

ABCI Research Direction — not an official government target.

Qualitative research proposition. No quantified 2035 scenario is published until a consistent baseline, assumptions and reproducible calculation have been reviewed. See the pillar measurement plan for definitions, collection needs and limitations.

Definition, dates & source context
Measurement period
Not identified in the linked source
Publication date
Not identified in the linked source
Independent check
Not reverified in this revision
Source edition
ABCI research framework 1.1
Derived from an official source

Non-oil share of real GDP

~47%

2025

Derived from the World Bank’s 2025 oil-share estimate: 100% − 53%. Approximate complement, not a separately reported official series.

Definition, dates & source context
Measurement period
2025
Publication date
Not identified in the linked source
Independent check
2026-09-30
Source edition
Linked publication / page; edition number not stated
Calculation
100% − 53% oil share of real GDP = approximately 47%; same 2025 estimate.
Source: World Bank — Iraq overview ↗

SOURCE REGISTER

Sources

The register identifies each linked publication or data series. Indicator cards retain measurement periods and definitions. An absent publication or check date is shown explicitly; the edition date is not a substitute.

  1. World Bank — Iraq overview

    Linked publication / page; edition number not stated

    Published: date not established

    Independent check: 2026-09-30

  2. COSIT — manufacturing value added (2024) and R&D spending (2021)

    Linked publication / page; edition number not stated

    Published: date not established

    Independent check: not reverified in this revision

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